2007年9月7日星期五

FAITH in Geely

The sale vol is my anticipation~ 85,000 half year
I guess the unit price is $ 85000 and it now is $83290

But the profit margin drop so sudden, but Geely is doing something to cut the supplier and its cost.

Geely is still in investing period, both technology and its brands
the profit will be affect during this peroid.
But when it is success, the profit will be coming.

Just let says, Levono 992 is an example,
its darkest day was 2006 summer the lowest price is ~2.2, Lenovo bought IBM in 2005/06. Because IBM asset affect serious on Lenovo at that period, that is I called " investing peroid". but time is going well. New product in the market..

then Lenovo gain more from the new IBM product.

Geely is same kind enterpise as Lenovo, it wont sudden up 10%, but it can double or triple year from year

this is my faith on Geely

用左2日睇清楚條數, 好有問題war.
1) 開新廠做 London taxi, 日常運作就入左支出. , 但係manganese bronze 股票升左三倍幾又無入資產 / 投資收入. ?? 唔明佢點解唔做?? 差5.5 億!!
5.5億加 8400萬 total 6.34億 係 175 (06/2006年) 1.24億

足足 500% 增長

有賊阿!! 唔見左 !!
2) 上面 4 間廠半年做 HKD ~50 億生意 , 賺 HKD 2.76億, 13/7/2007 又話會發 12.88 億新股收購 44% 權益 (~16億港元)
44% 權益一年賺2.76x 44% x2 = 2.4 億
以收購價16億計
PE of buying remained 44% = 16億 /2.4億 = 6.5 倍
今日 175 pe 成 20幾倍. ,收購後 pe 只有 15倍... 做乜唔做??
2007 剩得 3個半月.

sum up, 唔出貨, 未到收成時
( 又要練 EQ, 無乜 EQ 者勿跟)

13 則留言:

Lion 說...

disappointing half year report...
a little worried about geely's future...

Kendrick Chan 說...

Then why don't we invest it until it escape from the "investing period"?

匿名 說...

中國進入高通漲期, 水電燃料人工原材料樣樣都升, 沒有理所當然既漲價機制既行業好難吸引人投資落去, 靠cut supplier cost 頂得一時唔頂得一世, 所以近排開始增加房地產比重.

吉利係鞍鋼客戶, 據我對鋼鐵股的認識, 安仔每月都出到調整價格通告, 只在上半年為低端產品減過少少價, 除此之用今年9個月都係keep 到個個漲價的.

匿名 說...

唔計manganese bronze咪幾好,
PE無計入任何水份.

匿名 說...

今日跌10%+, 打入十大跌幅頭五名, 好傷.

有點唔明:
1. 資產的公平值是否要每年adjust?
manganese bronze 22.8% 股權價值
最遲會何時入賬?

2. 四間子公司應該是下半年入賬吧?

真係心痛...唉

Lion 說...

The problem is it cannot sell manganese bronze's stock, right?

According to the earning in the first half year: 1.77cents, the PE is about 102/1.77/2=28.8?

Lion 說...

Finally some good news?

吉利汽車旗下4聯營上月銷售量按年增33%
【17:20】2007年09月11日
【on.cc專訊】 吉利汽車(0175) 宣布,集團持有46.8%股權之4間聯營公司,於今年8月的汽車總銷售量為13,686台,按年升33%,按月亦增22%,更為集團史上夏季月份中銷量最好。該4間聯營公司於今年首8個月之汽車總銷售量為10.9309萬台,按年增2%,為4間聯營公司今年新制訂之目標銷量19萬台的58%。
公司發言人稱,較高價型號轎車如「自由艦」及「吉利金剛」仍是聯營公司8月銷售量的主要來源,而華普轎車之銷量,亦因出口訂單之付運,以及對新款低價型號轎車「海域」的強勁需求而提升。後市方面,由於預期需求強勁,加上新產品如「自由艦」升級版及新型四速自動變速箱之推出,以及估計年底前出口訂單付運之強勁增長,管理層相信4間聯營公司之汽車銷售量在年內將會加速增長。
該股今日收報1.02元,無升跌,成交金額2,128萬元。

Benathk 說...

在股市中

莊家唔夠貨 , 佢會沽到你怕 , 你唔沽比佢

個價跌到你唔信

但係莊家一夠貨 , 升得急到你話貴 ,

你唔買, 個價仲升得急..

好多例子 eg 上年 d 船股, 大陸airline

Kendrick Chan 說...

而家吉利 D 中價車連自動波箱都冇 , 好多客戶因此卻步 . 希望佢個新型自動變速箱會係一個 boost factor 喇 !

Lion 說...

A must-see, Li shufu interview at
http://info.china.alibaba.com/news/detail/v5003505-d1000863466-p1.html#newsdetail-content

匿名 說...

鞍鋼汽車板10月份加價約7%, 溫馨提示, 無惡意

Benathk 說...

thanks lion,
this few week I am very busy and dont have any spare time to view the Geely news.

Lion 說...

Still any brothers here?
http://www.geely.com/videos/

Now seems to be a good time to buy more 175