一季度車企利潤增長七成

2007年06月05日09:00 來源：
《北京晨報》
http://auto.people.com.cn/BIG5/1049/5821986.html
晨報訊（記者 沈欣）
中國汽車工業協會日前發布統計數據顯示，今年一季度，列入統計的16家國內汽車工業重點企業實現利潤高速增長，累計實現利潤總額達127.54億元，同比增長69.9%。在16家重點企業(集團)中，15家企業實現盈利，僅有昌河一家處於虧損，顯示整個行業處於持續景氣之中。　　

據2007年一季度汽車工業重點企業(集團)主要經濟指標快報顯示，汽車工業重點企業(集團)產出指標呈快速增長，累計實現主營業務收入2298.03億元，同比增長36.61%。　　

在16家重點企業(集團)中，主營業務收入同比增長率最高的是吉利集團，同比增長達到194.16%。中國重汽集團、華晨汽車、廣汽集團、一汽集團、東南汽車和奇瑞汽車實現主營業務收入增長率均呈高速增長，分別為87.02%、79.13%、76.13%、62.73%、55.45%和53.65%﹔江淮汽車、上汽和東風公司實現主營業務收入的增長率也較快，分別為27.68%、25.47%和19.24%。但哈飛汽車和昌河汽車實現主營業務收入同比略有下降，分別下降了0.60%和1.07%。　　

以吉利汽車、中國重汽集團和奇瑞公司為代表的自主品牌企業表現突出，利潤增長率同比分別達到2891.62%、545.14%和410.68%。　　

其中吉利集團主要是因為今年上年推出的金剛和遠景新車型已批量生產且銷售良好，在國外合資生產銷售情況良好﹔中國重汽集團強化技術優勢，將技術優勢轉換成市場優勢，且不斷開拓國際市場﹔奇瑞公司一方面產銷量增長較快（均超過45%），另一方面加強企業管理，大幅降低企業成本。　　

不過，在華晨集團、南汽集團和東南公司實現扭虧的同時，昌河公司仍為虧損，但3月份虧損額比1至2月份有所減少。
（責任編輯：仝宗莉）

Benathk 提到... 175 Geely

Thank you, albert. 4am, you have such strong insight in 4am, a strong man,. Bravo. Yup, maybe this is too earier to say Geely is sucess. But from the resource of China Car Master. http://blog.sina.com.cn/guojf TOP 10 SALE VOL
MAY 07 APR 07
一汽大众 ~59900 一汽大众 ~40000
奇瑞 ~33800 上海大众 ~39000
上海大众~32900 上海通用 ~38000
上海通用~30100 奇瑞 ~28500
东风日产~20600 东风日产 ~26000
吉利 ~17700 广州本田 ~21000
广州本田~17600 长安福特 ~19000
长安福特~17200 长安福特 ~19850
东风神龙~16200 东风神 ~18000
一汽丰田~15200 天津一汽 ~17000
吉利~16000(OUT OF TOP 10)

SALE VOL RISE
一汽大众, 奇瑞

SALE VOL DROP上海大众,上海通用,东风日产,广州本田长安福特,长安福特,东风神龙,天津一汽

AND Geely keep unchange. I know just compare 2 month data cannot provide strong statement and make a conclusion. I will be more focus on 3 to 6 months trends on whole China Market. Moveover, I am strong disagree with one of your point. "If they have more money, they prefer the foreign brands, such as Nissan, Toyota, Honda...etc Inother words, Geely's mid-end position is very-hard to be reinforced." Anti-Japan is still a social issue, due to this reason, Japanese brand cannot do well in China market. But the German/USA brand are more accepable for Mainland public. For Geely profit margin, I still have confidence. Because from www.people.com.cn
www. auto.people.com.cn/BIG5/1049/5821986.html
At the first time when i read this article on 5 Jun, I had a question liked yours ," Margin Pressue Continues to Intensify". or maybe this is fake data. You know everything can happen in internet. But this is 人民日报 中国共产党 people.com.cn, if this is fake, I cannot be read this article now. The article had been posted for 1 week. So I think this is true.Its profit can have sudden rise this 6 months.Ben
12:08 下午

Albert 提到... 175 Geely

benathk:Thanks for your details analysis, but I may still have several concerns regarding the automaker:1) The company previously targeted at 07 unit sales of around 240K units; reaching 180K units already missing the target, which should be worse than the company's forecast. Total sales units reached 83K units for 5 months in 2007, or merely 35% of the yearly forecast. --> The market will sell the share for such!2) Average ASP may not rise at an extent as you might imagine. Despite its effort in pushing more higer ASP automakers since 2005/2006, average ASP does not have sign of increase significantly. Instead, we see overall ASP still decline modestly in 2006 --> This may imply fierce competition exists in the PRC auto market; I can tell you nearly all automakers in the PRC have been launching higher-end cars every year, which could only result in the slowering of average ASPs.---> the sluggish sales figures tell us a big problem, which is people are less likely to consider Geely's mid-end vehicles. If they have more money, they prefer the foreign brands, such as Nissan, Toyota, Honda...etc Inother words, Geely's mid-end position is very-hard to be reinforced.3) Following (2), we may foresee atmost modest increase in ASP, but very-slow sales units in 2007. Overall sales amount may not increase significantly.4) Profit margin may not improve significantly as you might imagine. It is true that the margin moved up in 2006 due to the moving up of high-end cars. However, under sluggish car sales in 2007, what extent of margin expansion could you expect???http://www.geelyauto.com.hk/Uploadfiles/uploadattachfile/200753012217755.pdfIn the latest presentation, (page 19), Geely CLEARLY STATES that "Margin Pressue Continues to Intensify", which may make your margin increase wish over-optimistic.5) London-Cab business is set to be launched in 2008; but I could tell you, Geely may face one-off gross margin pressure from that segment in 2008, before it might yield appealing profits in 2009 (if any). To be honest, it's very hard to say whether the London-Cab business to be a good one at this moment. When the British sells something to you, the only advantage Geely got could be cost-advantage in China. However, it may still need to import the expensive European Engines which may dampen its margin......6) In terms of valuation, it is not attractive. Historical P/E of 25x; assuming flat-to-moderate sales growth, or even another slight improvement in overall margin, 07 P/E could still be 20x to 23x. The market buys Geely due mainly to its strong earnings growth. However, how much bottom-line could the automaker increase under flat sales, keen competitions as well as margin pressure??? Besides, London-cab business is still an uncertainty.
4:09 上午

FW吉利(175)吉人天相?

星期日, 六月 10, 2007


吉利(175)07年四月份個「Sales Unit(銷售量)」按年下跌。同期，其他較具實力車廠(一汽、上汽、東風)全部錄得增長(9%至17%不等)。07年頭四個月計，吉利「Sales Unit」僅按年上升3%，但東風(489)同期間按年大升23%; 以日本車為主的廣汽甚至按年大升82%。有點可以肯定，算入大約4%至9%降價因素，吉利個「Sales Amount」可能巳倒退。岩岩出埋07年五月份個「Sales Figures」，吉利五月份既「Sales Unit」僅按年上升3.2%。換句說話，頭五個月既生意唔會好得去邊。07年頭5個月生意係差(相對06年頭5個月生意)，就當下半年追番上黎，都實Underperform俾D對手。如果睇番06年頭5個月生意，吉利當時係比05年同期錄得強勁增長。似乎07年好難再有高增長。中國汽車業，都係搵D有實力既龍頭為妙; 論財力、「R&D」能力、產品競爭力，同埋經驗，人家牌面點計都係佔優。想「偷雞」，唔係成日都咁易......註: 全部數據以「Bloomberg」同「CAAM」數據為準
標籤： Automobile, Investment

Feedback.,分析員的告白

I have same feeling as you, as Geely does not have high growth as Cheyl and Dongfong. However I also take a calculation for its 2007 result. I think it will has a bright future.
First when I looked at its sale figure., this is poor. and I want to sold all 175 share. ,but I have caluclated its sale pattern and predict its profit margin %, and Investment income from London Black Cab stock. I still hold and buy more 175, and now I get ~500K share. and maybe increase if I have more cash.
Please have a look on my analysisas I aint am expert as your professions. Please let me know if I dont do well.
Sale Unit
Dec05 17888 Dec06 20409 +14%
Jan06 18708 Jan07 20009 + 7%
Feb06 12942 Feb07 13067 + 0%
Mar06 16788 Mar07 18059 + 7%
Apr06 14346 Apr07 16066 +12%
May06 15170 May07 15649 + 3%
Jun06 13999 Jun06 Unknown

First Its sale figure is so bad. And let look at its sale pattern, Geely has 4 kinds of hit model, ie Ulion, FreeCrusier, Kingkong and latest Vision., which can be found in www.geelyauto.com.hk
Dec05-Jun06 Dec06-May07
Ulion 29% na
FreeCrus 37% 34%
KingKong 1 % 26%
Vision n a 3 %
Then Look at the price of 4 models
range Rmb/K mean
Ulion 35-43.8 39.4
FreeCrus 49-65 57
Kingkong 59.8-75.8 67.8
Vision 74.8-103.8 89.3

In 2006,Geely's net car income is just ~hkd40,000 with profit margin 7.9%, and profit per car is HKD3160. and which near mean price of Ulion.

Ulion and FreeCrus are old model and still on market. KingKong start Jun06 and Vision start on May2007.

In half year, the net car income should be range between FreeCrus RMB 57000 and KingKong RMB67800. ie let say RMB 60,000. and the profit margin% should be ~10%. (rmb6,000 per car, a double) Whole year, the net car income cont raise, maybe up to 70,000 and higher profit margin to ~12%.(rmb 8,400 per car, 260% growth)
If 175 keep car sell 180,000 per year. The net income maybe +200% to 265%.
Moreover, dont forget there was an investment income from London Cab stock, which 175 hold 5.7M share @ GMB 2.5 Nov2006, . and those share is up and up to 52 highest GMP 9.5 and now Keep at GMP 8.55. (8.55-2.5) x5.7M x15.5= HKD535M www.manganese.com
I still dont like its debt though exact amount I dont know how to calculate, Please tell me if you have time to find.