2009年7月21日星期二

$2 Geely is the Beginning only

Friend asks me to sold a little bit 175 within this few day,, ummm, I consider .



But just make a brainstorm, $2 is just a start only, I predict. as I am not greedy



I have to understand the balance sheet is the Next Generation in 2009 when comparing with 2008, due to the account rule. coz Joint company right from 46.8% to 91%



Okay today price

$2 = RMB1.76 (1 HKD to 0.88RMB)



總市值= 1.76 x 6.49 Billion share = RMB 11.42 Billion



Geely's business model is simple, only income by sell car



in 2009, Geely will be 250,o00 unit of car sold,

Net profit per car

(2008 is RMB 5200 with 30% increase by 2007)

(2009 maybe RMB 6240 with 20% increase by 2008)

ie net income of 2009 will be



250000 x 6240RMB x 91% (Right)

= 1,420,000,000 ( RMB1.42Billion)



PE is just 8 only. this year will have 40-50% increase on net profit.,

then PE is predict can predict to increase



Every Geely Shareholder, lets enjoy the party right now.



Next board of meeting will be held in Sept 2009,

I guess it will be still keep raising till next interim report.

9 則留言:

匿名 說...

==> (2009 maybe RMB 6240 with 20% increase by 2008)

20% 呢個數點來? 我無咁樂觀,半年銷售增長明顯落後對手! 唯一可取係無作名顯減價。

上半年銷售數據:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/lg338/%E6%B1%BD%E8%BB%8A%E9%8A%B7%E5%94%AE%E6%95%B8%E5%AD%97

Benathk 說...

thnaks very useful information
Okay, i have considered
First, total number of car sold from 107000(2008) to 127000(2009)Second, Average unit sale price is increasing,
Third,Cost control (on both car selling and factory) can save some percentage of profit, so that the net profit margin can be protect.

in 2008, which average sale price is RMB40,000. and net profit is RMB5200.
in 2009, more higher price model is keeping toward to market, if just increase single digit,maybe 5% increase only. It will be RMB 2000 more than 2008. Then the cost of 2009 would be more saving than 2008, just ask 2% only.

匿名 說...

平均售價上升....同意。
2008年,新三樣佔76%銷售,2009H1, 應該有85~89%。可否升RMB2000,這點很難說!

這裡....應該只有我們兩個吉利股東!

還有,基本上,所有汽車股都升!我開始放棄用基礎分析。 太花時間!

你兒子兩歲,是嗎?

電力研究員

Benathk 說...

my baby girl is 15month jar

匿名 說...

baby girl is good, always listen to father. My son is trouble....

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