Albert 提到... 175 Geely

benathk:Thanks for your details analysis, but I may still have several concerns regarding the automaker:1) The company previously targeted at 07 unit sales of around 240K units; reaching 180K units already missing the target, which should be worse than the company's forecast. Total sales units reached 83K units for 5 months in 2007, or merely 35% of the yearly forecast. --> The market will sell the share for such!2) Average ASP may not rise at an extent as you might imagine. Despite its effort in pushing more higer ASP automakers since 2005/2006, average ASP does not have sign of increase significantly. Instead, we see overall ASP still decline modestly in 2006 --> This may imply fierce competition exists in the PRC auto market; I can tell you nearly all automakers in the PRC have been launching higher-end cars every year, which could only result in the slowering of average ASPs.---> the sluggish sales figures tell us a big problem, which is people are less likely to consider Geely's mid-end vehicles. If they have more money, they prefer the foreign brands, such as Nissan, Toyota, Honda...etc Inother words, Geely's mid-end position is very-hard to be reinforced.3) Following (2), we may foresee atmost modest increase in ASP, but very-slow sales units in 2007. Overall sales amount may not increase significantly.4) Profit margin may not improve significantly as you might imagine. It is true that the margin moved up in 2006 due to the moving up of high-end cars. However, under sluggish car sales in 2007, what extent of margin expansion could you expect???http://www.geelyauto.com.hk/Uploadfiles/uploadattachfile/200753012217755.pdfIn the latest presentation, (page 19), Geely CLEARLY STATES that "Margin Pressue Continues to Intensify", which may make your margin increase wish over-optimistic.5) London-Cab business is set to be launched in 2008; but I could tell you, Geely may face one-off gross margin pressure from that segment in 2008, before it might yield appealing profits in 2009 (if any). To be honest, it's very hard to say whether the London-Cab business to be a good one at this moment. When the British sells something to you, the only advantage Geely got could be cost-advantage in China. However, it may still need to import the expensive European Engines which may dampen its margin......6) In terms of valuation, it is not attractive. Historical P/E of 25x; assuming flat-to-moderate sales growth, or even another slight improvement in overall margin, 07 P/E could still be 20x to 23x. The market buys Geely due mainly to its strong earnings growth. However, how much bottom-line could the automaker increase under flat sales, keen competitions as well as margin pressure??? Besides, London-cab business is still an uncertainty.
4:09 上午