Feedback.,分析員的告白

I have same feeling as you, as Geely does not have high growth as Cheyl and Dongfong. However I also take a calculation for its 2007 result. I think it will has a bright future.
First when I looked at its sale figure., this is poor. and I want to sold all 175 share. ,but I have caluclated its sale pattern and predict its profit margin %, and Investment income from London Black Cab stock. I still hold and buy more 175, and now I get ~500K share. and maybe increase if I have more cash.
Please have a look on my analysisas I aint am expert as your professions. Please let me know if I dont do well.
Sale Unit
Dec05 17888 Dec06 20409 +14%
Jan06 18708 Jan07 20009 + 7%
Feb06 12942 Feb07 13067 + 0%
Mar06 16788 Mar07 18059 + 7%
Apr06 14346 Apr07 16066 +12%
May06 15170 May07 15649 + 3%
Jun06 13999 Jun06 Unknown

First Its sale figure is so bad. And let look at its sale pattern, Geely has 4 kinds of hit model, ie Ulion, FreeCrusier, Kingkong and latest Vision., which can be found in www.geelyauto.com.hk
Dec05-Jun06 Dec06-May07
Ulion 29% na
FreeCrus 37% 34%
KingKong 1 % 26%
Vision n a 3 %
Then Look at the price of 4 models
range Rmb/K mean
Ulion 35-43.8 39.4
FreeCrus 49-65 57
Kingkong 59.8-75.8 67.8
Vision 74.8-103.8 89.3

In 2006,Geely's net car income is just ~hkd40,000 with profit margin 7.9%, and profit per car is HKD3160. and which near mean price of Ulion.

Ulion and FreeCrus are old model and still on market. KingKong start Jun06 and Vision start on May2007.

In half year, the net car income should be range between FreeCrus RMB 57000 and KingKong RMB67800. ie let say RMB 60,000. and the profit margin% should be ~10%. (rmb6,000 per car, a double) Whole year, the net car income cont raise, maybe up to 70,000 and higher profit margin to ~12%.(rmb 8,400 per car, 260% growth)
If 175 keep car sell 180,000 per year. The net income maybe +200% to 265%.
Moreover, dont forget there was an investment income from London Cab stock, which 175 hold 5.7M share @ GMB 2.5 Nov2006, . and those share is up and up to 52 highest GMP 9.5 and now Keep at GMP 8.55. (8.55-2.5) x5.7M x15.5= HKD535M www.manganese.com
I still dont like its debt though exact amount I dont know how to calculate, Please tell me if you have time to find.